Dave Carney Just Outlined the GOP Strategy to Defeat Texas Democrats in 2027

And Democrats need to listen up!

At the AAPC Southwestern Regional Conference, Republican strategist Dave Carney (Greg Abbott’s campaign strategist) delivered what should be a blaring alarm for every Democrat in Texas. He did not sugarcoat the plan. He told the audience exactly how Republicans intend to win, where they will invest, and why they believe Democrats will once again fumble the ball. Democrats need to stop ignoring the warnings and start acting like the fight for Texas is real.

The GOP Knows Its Base

Carney admitted the average Republican voter is pushing 70. He even joked that the recent death of Charlie Kirk will bring that age down because the GOP is registering new voters at Kirk’s vigils, turning him into a martyr. Republicans are not ashamed of their tactics. They are celebrating them. After all, they were selling Merch at the Kirk funeral this past weekend. The Trump Regime turned it into a hate rally more than a funeral, and you bet they were making sure they keep all those attendees as voters for the 2026 cycle and registered every single one that wasn’t already registered to vote.

While Democrats wring their hands about how to talk to young people, Republicans are out there setting up clipboards at funerals and college campuses. They are making their party look like the cool club, and they are not embarrassed by the hustle.

Their Math is Ruthless

Carney is betting on African American and Hispanic Texans not voting. He said it outright: these groups are not voters. To him, that is not a problem to solve; it is a cornerstone of the Republican path to victory.

And here is the part that should chill every Democrat: Carney said the only reason Republicans win is when Democrats stay home. He cited the 40 percent of Democrats who did not vote because they could not bring themselves to support either Harris or Trump. If 40 percent of our people sit out again in 2027, then yes, Republicans will win before the first ad even airs.

Message, Money, Messenger

The Republican strategy boils down to three words: message, money, messenger. They poll constantly. They tell stories instead of quoting stats. They train their candidates to repeat a persuasive message 150 thousand times without flinching. They do not let boredom or Twitter trends knock them off track. And unlike Democrats, they do not wander into rabbit holes or look around and scream squirrel. Republicans stay on message, and they are trained to stay on message.

A good message equals confidence. Confidence repeated equals victory.

Issues That Win Elections

Carney was blunt. Republicans are not going to waste time on cultural distractions unless they are hitting Democrats for prioritizing them. He says voters care about jobs, cost of living, and safety.

His example was pointed. He mocked Democrats for focusing on high school shower policies while families are struggling to pay for groceries. He is wrong about what Democrats stand for, but he is right about what voters hear. Voters care about themselves, not about politicians. Carney’s advice to Republicans: always lead with prescriptions for bread-and-butter issues.

They Are Building for the Long Haul

The GOP is putting 25 million dollars into South Texas across 50 counties. They are not waiting for big-name candidates. They are investing now, building infrastructure, and embedding staff from Cameron County to Denton County. Democrats once thought they owned South Texas. Republicans now believe it is their future.

Meanwhile, Democrats are still chasing a mythical top-of-the-ticket savior while ignoring the bench. Carney reminded his audience that Republicans built their statewide strength by starting down ballot. Karl Rove recruited for state rep and comptroller before governor and senator. Democrats always just concentrate on the top of the ticket, and those candidates are the only ones who get money to run for office. Democrats cannot keep skipping steps. We need to focus on down-ballot candidates more.

Crime, Bail, and Safety

Carney knows fear works. He is pounding the drum on crime and bail reform. He cited 160 murders in Harris County that he claims are linked to no-bail policies. He told the story of a confessed murderer who was released and allegedly killed again a week later. Republicans will use every tragedy to paint Democrats as indifferent to safety. And if Democrats do not respond, that message will stick.

Education Savings Accounts

School vouchers are not going away. Carney calls them inevitable. He says Republicans will do it the easy way or the hard way, but they will do it. Democrats cannot afford to get caught flat-footed. Parents are looking for solutions. We need to be ready with answers that defend public schools while addressing families’ concerns.

Youth and Campus Engagement

Republicans are not laughing at college outreach. They are serious about engaging students, even when the room is hostile. Carney told his crowd that if you want young voters, you have to show up on their campuses, and you cannot be afraid of protests or bad press. He also said that the online influencers that Democrats have are not helpful because they do not appeal to younger men.

He also mocked Democrats for spending on celebrity endorsements and flashy ads. His point is that authenticity matters more than Beyoncé or a Super Bowl spot. He is wrong to dismiss the power of cultural figures, but he is right that Democrats cannot skip the hard work of showing up. They feel like the Kirk shooting will give them two more years of being cool with the younger crowd and several more years of Republican vote growth with young adults.

What Democrats Must Learn

Carney’s playbook is not complicated. It is disciplined. He who defines the issue wins. Voters do not care about you; they care about themselves. Candidates who do not know why they are running will not survive the grind. Consultants who overpromise and skim commissions will keep bleeding Democrats dry unless someone demands transparency. And let’s face it, one bad boyfriend that the Democrats keep going back to is Consultants that do not deliver. They know they have talent within the ranks, and yet they still don’t call on them.

The consultants have no incentive for Democrats to win; they fleece the candidates, the party, and democratic organizations.

Republicans win voters by doing polling and experimenting with the polling that they do. They tell stories that are relatable to voters, and they invest and train their candidates and surrogates with a good message, how to be confident, and they repeat the same message 4x per day. They do not go down rabbit holes because they are disciplined.

This is the Republican blueprint for 2027. It is not a secret. It is not subtle. They are telling us exactly how they will win. The question is whether Democrats will finally listen, or whether we will give Dave Carney another reason to laugh at us. And laugh at us he did, he made a snide joke about how the Republican Party should have credited Gilberto Hinojosa as an in-kind donation for how he just let the Republican Party take away so many voters by not showing up, asking people to vote for Democrats. “The Democratic Party Chair was so great because he was so terrible, “ said Carney, “Democrats will never win till they grow up.”

Marching Orders for Democrats

If Democrats want to win in Texas, it is time to focus and get serious. We must run on three issues only: economy, jobs, and safety. These are the issues Texans live and breathe every single day. Everything else is noise.

We need to engage voters where they are. Not just on Twitter. Not just with television ads. We have to show up in authentic ways, on campuses, in neighborhoods, at community events, in church parking lots, and where people are. And this isn’t something that writing postcards alone will win for us.

We need to register voters like our democracy depends on it, because it does. We need to stop waiting for a perfect candidate at the top of the ticket and start building the pipeline of local and statewide leaders who can grow into future governors and senators.

We need to show up more in South Texas and focus on the Latino vote. Republicans will be investing 25 million in South Texas in 50 counties.

We need to stop fighting each other and start working together. The Republicans are disciplined. We can be too. If we fail to do this, we will continue to replay the same losing cycle, handing Dave Carney victory speeches he has already written.

The time to get serious is now!