"It's Not Magic. It's Math." –

The Dave Carney Playbook That Keeps Beating Us

You may not know Dave Carney’s name, but he’s the guy who’s been ghostwriting Texas politics for decades—and he’s really, really good at it.

He ran campaigns for George W. Bush, Bob Dole, Rick Perry, and Greg Abbott. And if you’re wondering how Republicans keep winning in Texas despite outspending them, outorganizing them, and, frankly, outsmarting them on most days—look no further than the Carney doctrine.

And no, it’s not magic. It’s ruthless efficiency. It’s message discipline. And it’s a lesson Democrats better learn fast before we get smoked again in 2026.

Here’s what Carney teaches—and why it matters.

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🎯 Message Over Everything

Carney’s not worried about vibes. He’s not chasing the latest narrative. He’s telling a story voters feel in their wallets: gas prices, grocery bills, sending your kids to camp. If it doesn’t hit the kitchen table, it doesn’t hit the campaign.

“Middle-of-the-road voters don’t care about ideology. They care about milk prices.”

He pounds one thing into every campaign: stick to solution-based messaging. Have a five-point plan. Talk about problems you’re going to solve. And for the love of god, don’t let your opponent define you.

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📊 Data, But Make It Human

Carney doesn’t just run polls—he builds voter profiles down to the cereal they eat and the car they drive. He takes 7,000–10,000 persuadable voters, models them across 7 million independents, and targets relentlessly.

That’s:

• Door knocks

• Digital ads

• Texts

• Mail

• Radio

And they don’t talk to Republicans until three weeks before early voting. Why? Because they’re not wasting money. They’re chasing swing voters while we chase our tails.

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📺 Burn the Broadcast Playbook

In 2024, Team MAGA threw out cable. Completely.

Instead, they focused on:

• Football (yes, even junior leagues)

• Terrestrial radio (cheap, targeted, powerful)

• YouTube (aka the 5th major network)

• Podcasts (where people choose to listen)

• Texting (because robocalls are dead)

Why does it work? Because they go where voters actually are. They meet them in the car, on the couch, in their earbuds—not just on MSNBC at 7 p.m.

“You can destroy a candidate on radio and no one in the media will even notice.”

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🧱 Ground Game, But Real

Carney knows ground game wins—if you’re actually on the ground.

Greg Abbott’s campaign paid canvassers to hand out lit in rural counties. Not volunteers. Not selfies. Just boots and brochures.

Meanwhile, Beto visited rural towns but didn’t invest in them. No ads. No organizing. No follow-through. A 55-minute stump speech with no headline. That’s not strategy—that’s self-soothing.

“At rallies, you’re talking to yourself. Go speak at Rotary clubs.”

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💸 Budgets Don’t Win Campaigns. Budgets Well-Spent Do.

Dems spent $2.5 billion in 2024. Trumpworld spent $1.5 billion. Guess who made it count?

Because a flashy digital ad with no hook or CTA doesn’t move voters. A debate performance no one watches doesn’t swing minds. What does?

• Ads that solve problems

• Mail that drives action

• Messaging that sticks for months

• Voters who feel seen

And when it comes to early voting strategy, Carney budgets backward. He maps persuasion first, turnout second, and doesn’t blow his ad spend on vibes.

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🧨 2026 Forecast: Brace for the Economy Election

Carney’s calling it already: 2026 is all about prices. Not culture wars. Not Twitter beefs. Not Greenland or Ukraine.

“The cost of goods will determine the election.”

If eggs are up and rent is tight, expect Republicans to turn that into a grievance goldmine. Unless we beat them to it with an actual plan.

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🧵 Final Takeaway: Learn From the Guy Who Keeps Beating Us

Dave Carney isn’t smarter than us. But he’s more disciplined. More ruthless. And absolutely more focused on persuasion.

He doesn’t chase the algorithm. He builds a strategy and executes it mercilessly.

If Democrats want to win in 2026, we don’t need to become Republicans. But we do need to out-Carney Dave Carney.

That means:

• Getting obsessed with swing voters

• Cutting the fluff from our messages

• Planning early and budgeting backwards

• Running on hope and how-to’s

Let’s stop losing to the Republicans. We need to do it with fewer resources and a better plan.

It’s not magic. It’s math. And it’s time we started doing the damn homework.

~ Nancy Thompson