🧩 Undermining Democracy or Shoring It Up? A Roadmap for Texas’ Next Fight

New Maps New Fight

Texas Republicans have rolled out an aggressive mid-decade redistricting map (Plan C2308), aiming to carve out five new GOP U.S. House seats from the current 25‑13 split to a potential 30‑8 margin (Houston Chronicle).

But their challenges are mounting—and so are opportunities for Democrats.

Here’s a link to the redistricting Plans: Plan C2308

📉 Trump in Texas: Approval Rating Dips into Dangerous Territory

The June 2025 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Trump at 44% approval vs 51% disapproval. Marking the first time his statewide job approval has ever gone negative in his second term (The Texas Politics Project).
Economic anxiety is dragging Trump standing below water and if the redistricting fight intensifies, that could further erode GOP momentum. Not to mention the Epstein controversy.

🔍 Where Democrats Still Have a Shot (Despite the Map)

Even the heavily gerrymandered Plan C2308 leaves cracks in the armor:

✅ TX‑15 (South Texas / Rio Grande Valley) - Monica DeLaCruz (Rep)

Trump flipped this former Democratic stronghold in 2024—but with Biden at 49.5% in 2020 and a Democratic base still present, this district remains a frontrunner for a flip-back (The Center for Politics).

✅ TX‑23 (West Texas/border region) - Tony Gonzales (Rep)

Almost evenly split in past elections and trending demographically. This one’s a true toss-up if turnout surges in Latino communities (The Center for Politics).

✅ TX‑28 and TX‑34 (Rio Grande Valley corridor) - Democratic seats we need to keep

Still held by Democrats Cuellar and Gonzalez, but TX‑34 lost ~65,000 Hispanic voters in the new map, reducing its competitiveness. Strong turnout and messaging are critical.

🟨 Longer‑Term Targets (TX‑22 & TX‑24) Troy Nehls (Rep) and Beth Van Duyne (Rep)

Suburban seats in SW Houston and DFW with fast-changing demographics. Biden in the mid‑40s here. Flip infrastructure and messaging can pay dividends later.

🧠 Strategy: Field Operations & Messaging Aligned with Poll Dynamics

TX‑15: Economic hardship, healthcare defeats Door-knocking in RGV/Edinburg, digital ads on women’s health

TX‑23: Border issues, gun safety, economic, healthcare, Youth mobilization in Uvalde/Eagle Pass, bilingual TikTok campaigns

TX‑28/34: Voter dilution by packing Spanish radio, union outreach, and home visits in Laredo and Brownsville

TX‑22/24: Wealth inequality, suburban women & minorities OTT/YouTube ads targeting moderate suburbs, localized mailers

Final thoughts... What if for once, we all pulled in the same direction? Organizing, messaging, mobilizing. It’s going to take serious elbow grease and a whole lot of coffee, but we can do this. Democrats aren’t exactly known for singing in harmony, but maybe it’s time we try. Because let’s be real: messy teamwork still beats organized fascism. Every. Damn. Time.

Final Hearing is on Friday. See you there!

Yours in Raising Good Trouble!

Nancy Thompson